Indy Elections: Republicans lead in voter turnout by about 2 percentage points
Indy Elections is The Nevada Independent’s newsletter devoted to comprehensive and accessible coverage of the 2024 elections, from the race for the White House to the bid to take control of the Legislature.
In today’s edition: Resources to help you fill out your ballot. Plus: The Boss crunches early vote data so you don’t have to, and the Trump campaign has been ramping up its anti-trans messaging. There were also some celebrity sightings in the Silver State during the last few days (and no, we’re not talking about Mark Wahlberg’s interview at IndyFest).
Don’t miss it: If you haven’t, already, you should check out The Boss’ early voting blog, which has all the data on general election early vote turnout in the #WeMatter state you could want.
Haven't had time to digest all the numbers yet?
Here are some highlights:
- As of 6:10 a.m. Tuesday, Republicans hold a rare statewide turnout lead in a presidential year by just under 6,000 votes or 2 percent of the early vote turnout. The Clark County Democratic firewall is slim, with only about a 6,500-vote lead.
- In 2020, President Joe Biden won nonpartisan and non-major parties by 6 percentage points in 2020, according to exit polls. It’s likely Harris will need to pick up a similar margin if Republicans have a 5-point or so turnout edge after Election Day.
- Democratic numbers (so far) are lower than at the same time in 2020. It’s worth noting that the 2020 general election may not be an apt comparison because of the pandemic and the rollout of mail-in balloting.
A quick reminder: If you are not registered to vote, click here to do so — the deadline to register online and receive a mail ballot is today. Nevadans can also register to vote online or in person before casting a ballot through the close of polls on Election Day.
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We want to hear from you! Send us your questions, comments, observations, jokes or what you think we should be covering or paying attention to. Email your newsletter editor Tabitha Mueller at tabitha@thenvindy.com.
By the Numbers:
- 11 days until early voting ends
- 15 days until Election Day
- 105 days until the 83rd legislative session
Filling out your ballot? Here are some election resources that could be helpful
By Tabitha Mueller
Stay tuned this week for our soon-to-be-published judicial project, a one-of-a-kind resource featuring detailed questionnaires filled out by judge candidates and expert legal analysis from our partners at UNLV’s Boyd School of Law.
For important deadlines, check out The Nevada Independent’s 2024 Election Guide, and take advantage of these in-depth resources to inform your choices:
- Previews of nine key legislative races: In the quest for a veto-proof supermajority, a handful of races will make the difference. All but one candidate in each of these races sat down with our small but mighty legislative team for a detailed conversation about their policy stances.
- Previews of all four congressional races and coverage of the U.S. Senate race: Not sure who the nonpartisan candidate running against Rep. Mark Amodei (R-NV) is in Northern Nevada’s Congressional District 2 or what the three Democrats running for re-election in Southern Nevada hope to achieve? Look no further than these articles. We also have a profile on Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) that gives insight into her time in office. A profile on Rosen’s Republican challenger Sam Brown will be published later this week.
- Previews of Washoe County and Clark County school board races: Education reporter extraordinaire Rocio Hernandez took the time to do a deep dive into the school board races in the state’s biggest school districts, speaking with each candidate and outlining their goals for the office. She even spent some time earlier this year investigating Moms for Liberty, a group backing some of the school board candidates that has supported banning books with LGBTQ+ themes.
- Explainers of all seven ballot questions: One measure has the potential to be the biggest change to the state’s election system it has ever experienced. Read a synthesized analysis of the arguments for and against each proposal and detailed investigations into who’s backing each and how they might affect you.
- Profiles on Las Vegas mayoral candidates Shelley Berkley and Victoria Seaman: With Carolyn Goodman terming out of office, The Nevada Independent’s gaming reporter, Howard Stutz, donned his election hat and dug deep on the backgrounds of the two candidates vying to replace her. He also covered a Vegas mayoral forum hosted by The Indy, detailing where the candidates share common ground and where they disagree. A bonus: You can find our profile on Goodman here.
Though The Nevada Independent focused on certain key elections this cycle, here are some links to coverage from other outlets that may be useful:
- Previews of the Clark County Commission races from the Nevada Current for Districts A, B and D, here, and District C, here
- Preview of the Washoe County Commission race from the Reno Gazette-Journal for District 1, here
- Previews of the Nevada State Board of Education races from the Nevada Current for District 1, here, District 2, here, and District 3, here
- Preview of the Las Vegas City Council race from the Nevada Current for Ward 5, here
- Previews of the Reno City Council races from the Reno Gazette-Journal for Ward 1, here, Ward 3, here, Ward 5, here, and Ward 6, here
- Preview of the North Las Vegas City Council races from the Nevada Current for Ward 2, here
Election guides from other outlets:
What we’re reading and writing
In return to Nevada, Obama condemns Trump’s character, touts Harris’ proposals by Eric Neugeboren
The Democrats pull out the big gun.
In long lines, Nevada early voters say this is election of their lifetimes by Isabella Aldrete and David Calvert
Swing state voters reveal anxieties about the future.
With supermajority at stake, fundraising battle is tight in key Nevada legislative races by Eric Neugeboren
Fundraising leads often mean victory.
Millions pour into groups supporting abortion, ranked-choice voting ballot questions by Eric Neugeboren
It must be nice to have the money on your side.
In Senate debate, Rosen and Brown stick to campaign playbooks by Gabby Birenbaum and Eric Neugeboren
No risking it for the biscuit in this debate.
Democrats continue fundraising dominance in Nevada congressional races by Eric Neugeboren
Have Republicans given up in three of Nevada’s congressional races?
Website linking Assembly candidate to Taliban supporters called Islamophobic by Tabitha Mueller
An expert said the website “plays on xenophobic and Islamophobic bias.”
Indy Poll Watch
Washington Post/Schar School (Sept. 29 - Oct. 15)
- 652 likely voters
- Margin of error: 4.8 percentage points
- Findings
- Harris 48%, Trump 48%
We have a new poll from a high quality outfit, with a familiar message — it’s a nailbiter in Nevada. Interestingly, Harris is up 3 percentage points with registered voters — suggesting Democrats have work to do to turn out low-propensity voters. That matches what The Boss has been saying all cycle, which is that Republicans typically turn out here at higher rates.
Another fun tidbit from this poll — 70 percent of Nevadans feel empowered that their vote can make a difference because they live in a swing state. But for the same reason, 77 percent are annoyed by the abundance of campaign advertising.
— Gabby Birenbaum
Indy Ad Watch
AD-NALYSIS OF THE WEEK: GOP ramps up anti-trans messaging
In recent weeks, the Trump campaign has ramped up its anti-transgender advertising in Nevada.
Republicans have spent nearly $1.5 million in ad space in Nevada to air four television ads related to comments made by Harris that she would support providing transgender prisoners with gender-affirming care (something that prisons also provided under Trump’s administration), according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact. All four ads include some iteration of the phrase “Kamala is for they/them, President Trump is for you.”
The campaign and its allies spent $21 million on advertising related to LGBTQ rights in the first half of October, almost double the amount spent on ads related to inflation or immigration, according to a CNN analysis of AdImpact data.
In an interview with Fox News last week, Harris condemned the Trump ad spending, arguing the topic pales in comparison to other issues facing everyday Americans.
TREND WE’RE FOLLOWING: Dems pull spending in Las Vegas House races
The House Majority PAC, the group focused on electing Democrats to the U.S. House, pulled $3.5 million in ad reservations last week for the three Democrat-held races in Southern Nevada.
It’s a sign of Democratic confidence in the three seats, which national Republicans have essentially ignored after their massive investments in the districts two years ago amount to no seat pickups.
— Eric Neugeboren
The Lightning Round
🚘 Uber-backed initiative gains enough signatures — State election officials approved more than 124,000 signatures for the Uber-backed effort to cap attorney contingency fees in Nevada, allowing it to move forward. The initiative is pending a legal challenge in the Nevada Supreme Court, with oral arguments scheduled for Nov. 7. If it passes legal muster, it would go to the Legislature in 2025 for approval. If the Legislature does not act, the question would be placed on the 2026 general election ballot.
😆 Celebrity sighting pt. 1 — Comedian Jimmy Kimmel returned to Nevada on Monday to stump for Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) for the second time this cycle. They met with Culinary Workers Union Local 226 members and kicked off a canvassing event in Las Vegas.
🎥 Celebrity sighting pt. 2 — Actress Jennifer Garner and Minnesota first lady Gwen Walz made stops on Saturday in Reno and Carson as part of the "Fighting for Reproductive Freedom" national bus tour. The event coincided with the start of in-person early voting and marked two of the 60 stops the bus has made in communities across the country.
📪 Washoe withdraws Postal Service suit — Washoe County prosecutors on Monday withdrew their lawsuit to require the U.S. Postal Service to seek an advisory opinion from its parent agency regarding the previous plan to move mail processing operations out of Reno. The withdrawal is no surprise because the Postal Service has since abandoned its mail processing proposal and has sought an advisory opinion.
— Eric Neugeboren and Tabitha Mueller
Looking Ahead
- Wednesday, Oct. 23: Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance is holding rallies in Las Vegas and Reno.
- Thursday, Oct. 24: Trump is returning to Vegas for a rally with the conservative group Turning Point USA, featuring Vivek Ramaswamy and Tulsi Gabbard.
— Eric Neugeboren
And to ease you into the week, a few “posts” to “X” that caught our eye:
- Time is meaningless.
- Is this voter fraud? Pretty sure robots can't vote ... yet.
- Proof that #WeMatter.
We’ll see you Thursday.
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