Indy Elections: Many lawsuits, few wins for GOP — what’s the playbook?
Indy Elections is The Nevada Independent’s newsletter devoted to comprehensive and accessible coverage of the 2024 elections, from the race for the White House to the bid to take control of the Legislature.
In today’s edition: Why Republicans are already litigating Nevada’s election system. The unexpected voice telling Washoe County voters to trust the election. Plus, for the first time, new polling shows Vice President Kamala Harris winning in the Sagebrush State outside of the margin of error.
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By the Numbers:
- 35 days until Election Day
- 18 days until early voting
- 125 days until the 83rd legislative session
How Republicans are already litigating Nevada’s elections
By Eric Neugeboren
For months, the GOP has been out in full force litigating the ins and outs of Nevada’s elections.
The Republican National Committee (often in tandem with former President Donald Trump’s campaign and the Nevada GOP) has filed four lawsuits in the Silver State this year, alleging the state is being too lax in disqualifying ineligible voters and challenging the constitutionality of mail ballot laws.
It’s been a failure so far. Three of the suits have been dismissed or denied, and the fourth has not yet been heard. Plus, the voter roll lawsuits cannot even be addressed before Election Day because of federal laws on voter roll maintenance.
The suits are part of a plan — along with the bolstering of lawyers working for the GOP — to bring battleground states’ election laws to the courtroom.
To Nevada GOP Chair Michael McDonald, these are “unprecedented measures” that will bolster voters’ trust in elections. To Democrats, they are part of a more sinister campaign to pursue destined-to-fail lawsuits that will make it seem like the state is not taking election integrity seriously, setting the stage for post-election litigation.
Read more here for a closer look at the GOP’s efforts.
What we’re reading and writing
We run down the policy positions of candidates in AD37, AD29 and SD15 in our series on the most pivotal state legislative races.
AKA, everything you could possibly want to know about where candidates stand on the issues.
Four takeaways from Kamala Harris’ speech in Las Vegas by Eric Neugeboren
The VP took on pocketbook issues and seems focused on shoring up Dems' slipping Latino support.
Berkley views Las Vegas mayor’s race as her final chapter in public service by Howard Stutz
The former congresswoman is eyeing a political comeback 12 years after leaving public office.
Vegas mayor candidates agree on ending Badlands drama, but spar on how by Howard Stutz
For the first time in more than 25 years, Las Vegas will not have a Goodman as mayor.
Washoe County registrar of voters to take a leave of absence ahead of election by Tabitha Mueller
Is it December yet?
Indy Poll Watch
The following polls of likely presidential election voters in Nevada were released last week:
Morning Consult/Bloomberg (Sept. 19-25)
- 516 likely voters
- Margin of error: 4 percent
- Findings
- Harris 52%, Trump 45%
American Greatness/TIPP Insights (Sept. 23-25)
- 736 likely voters
- Margin of error: 3.7 percent
- Findings
- Harris 49%, Trump 48%
Atlas Intel (Sept. 20-25)
- 858 likely voters
- Margin of error: 3 percent
- Findings
- Harris 51%, Trump 48%
- Rosen 48%, Brown 46%
Noble Predictive Insights (Sept. 6-19)
- 692 likely voters
- Margin of error: 3.72 percent
- Findings
- Harris 48%, Trump 47%
- Rosen 52%, Brown 34%
We’ve got a hefty poll watch this week, with two surprising results — the first poll we’ve seen where Harris is leading outside the margin of error in Nevada (Morning Consult) and the first one that finds the Senate race to be within the margin of error (Atlas Intel).
Of course, these outliers should be taken in context with the averages. And it’s worth looking into what’s pushing the data outside of the norm. In the presidential race, the Morning Consult poll finds some wonky results — Harris’ margins are better with men than women, for example, and she’s up with non-college educated voters.
Atlas finds Republican Sam Brown overperforming relative to other polls and past Republicans with Black voters, Hispanic voters and suburban voters. But given that its finding is closer to actual margins we’ve seen in past Nevada Senate races, it’s worth keeping an eye on those groups as he makes his push to close in on Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) in the campaign’s final month.
One of the interesting trends in polling across swing states is Harris trailing Biden’s 2020 mark among voters of color, particularly Latino voters, but Trump struggling to hold onto his prior levels of support among white voters. That’s part of why polling averages have found Harris leading in the whiter states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin while trailing in more diverse Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona. (Nevada, special state that it is, has proven to be an exception among the more diverse Sun Belt states, with Harris maintaining a narrow lead.) Averaging these four polls in Nevada from late September, we find:
- White voters: Trump +8 (2020: Trump +13)
- Hispanic voters: Harris: +16 (2020: Biden +26)
- Black voters: Harris +43 (2020: Biden +62)
Using Cook Political Report’s vote share model, if the above are the margins by race, and turnout by racial group remains stable, we’d have … Harris +2. (One point worth noting: the polling average at the end of September 2020 in Nevada had Biden up 5 points. He ultimately won by 2.5.)
— Gabby Birenbaum
Indy Ad Watch
AD-NALYSIS OF THE WEEK: Sheriff urges trust in Nevada’s elections
The week after Washoe County interim Registrar of Voters Cari-Ann Burgess announced she would be taking a leave of absence, raising questions about election administration in the swing county, a new set of advertisements launched Tuesday featuring the county’s Republican sheriff, Darin Balaam.
In the ads, Balaam urges trust in the election system, saying that the county sheriff’s office helps transport ballots from polling locations and that they are protected and secured once they arrive at the registrar’s office.
“I get it, this is serious stuff,” Balaam said in one of the ads. “But join me in trusting the process.”
Polling from The Tarrance Group on behalf of RightCount, which produced the ads, found high trust on election-related matters for public officials and community leaders among Republican and Republican-leaning nonpartisan voters in Nevada.
TREND WE’RE FOLLOWING: Rosen’s 2-to-1 lead
Spending supporting Democrat Jacky Rosen accounts for about 63 percent of the Nevada Senate race’s ad reservation dollars.
ONE OTHER TIDBIT
- Ahead of Filipino American History Month in October and as part of a broader strategy to reach Filipino and Asian American voters, the Harris-Walz campaign rolled out ads on Las Vegas taxis, bus shelters and billboards, highlighting Vice President Kamala Harris’ support for “Pinoy Pride.” Several ads, rolled out in time for the city’s Pinoy Pride Festival, also feature the Filipino greeting “Mabuhay,” meaning “long live.”
Asian American voters make up about 10 percent of Nevada’s eligible voting population — and between 2016 and 2020, Asian American and Pacific Islander voters had the biggest turnout jump of any group of voters in Nevada.
— Tabitha Mueller and Eric Neugeboren
The Lightning Round
🏈 Clark County voters will be able to cast a ballot at Allegiant Stadium on Election Day — In prepared statements, Raiders owner Mark Davis and Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar said the stadium is proud to encourage high turnout by allowing voters to vote at the central and “iconic” location.
📊 Nevada Teamster poll shows Trump support? - Poll results indicate that nearly 60 percent of Teamsters union members in Nevada are backing former President Donald Trump, and about 37 percent support Vice President Kamala Harris. Though the main national body of the Teamsters union declined to endorse a presidential candidate in the upcoming election, Nevada’s Teamsters union chapter endorsed the vice president.
💸McConnell group to Nevada: We fold — Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), the super PAC connected with Mitch McConnell (R-KY), made a $67.5 million ad buy for Senate races in the fall — but Nevada didn’t make the cut. The McConnell political brain trust is acknowledging that it believes its prospects are better in other states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
😣 Trouble in the WeMatter state — With just 35 days until the election, the The Wall Street Journal reports that Republican political operatives are worried that Harris’ ground forces are outperforming them in voter engagement efforts in the Silver State. The paper also noted that a pro-Trump political action committee supported by Elon Musk fired a vendor behind the organization’s get-out-the-vote operations in Nevada.
🏡 Tenants and advocates call for housing focus — Progressive groups Make the Road Nevada and Popular Democracy organized a rally Saturday in Las Vegas calling for funding for affordable housing, stronger tenant protection laws and “bold action from local and state leaders.” The organizations reported more than 200 people attended. In Nevada, where there is a shortage of more than 78,000 rental homes affordable and available to low-income families, housing has become a focal point of the 2024 campaign up and down the ballot.
🔉Lee in hot water — North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee, running against Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV) in the Congressional District 4, was caught on tape calling the Congressional Black Caucus “the most racist people in the world” in audio obtained by The Huffington Post. Horsford is the chair of the Congressional Black Caucus. Lee also said he was “not worried about Black people” in the election because he is the former mayor of North Las Vegas.
— Tabitha Mueller and Gabby Birenbaum
Looking Ahead
- Thursday, Oct. 3: Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) comes to Las Vegas to stump for Sam Brown at a Senate campaign event.
- Thursday, Oct. 3: Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) will be in East Las Vegas to discuss the presidential election and the Nevada economy.
- Thursday, Oct. 3 and Friday, Oct. 4: Republican U.S. Senate candidate Sam Brown’s wife, Amy Brown, is hosting several panel discussions in Reno, Henderson and Las Vegas on the topics of human trafficking and women’s sports.
- Friday, Oct. 4: UNLV is hosting a free panel on cyber resiliency in the American election system at 9:30 a.m. in the Advanced Engineering Building Flexatorium (Room 130).
— Gabby Birenbaum and Tabitha Mueller
And to ease you into the week, a few “posts” to “X” that caught our eye:
- Any Harris surrogates rooting for the Aces?
- Neon is the new blue?
- Looks about right.
We’ll see you next week.
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