Let’s take a walk down D.C. Download memory lane, shall we? Here are a few sentences I wrote in the past year:

• 9/23/23: “There are just seven days until government funding lapses, and with House Republicans yet to pass a spending bill, federal agencies are preparing to close.”
• 9/30/23: “Home to thousands of active-duty military and veterans, a significant population on food assistance, and a major international and domestic travel hub at Harry Reid International Airport, a government shutdown is expected to take a toll on Nevada — particularly if weeks or even a month goes by without a deal.”
• 11/11/23: “As the government shutdown deadline (again) approaches, Congress is exploring ways to kick the can down the road.”
• 1/13/24: “Happy new year, Nevada! Let's kick 2024 off with a familiar topic … the risk of a government shutdown.”
• 3/23/24: “Now well into March — nearly six months into the fiscal year — it appears our long national nightmare is finally coming to an end.” 

If you were playing a drinking game where you took a shot for every near-shutdown … well, that’s only five shots in a year so you’re doing better than most of us ink-stained wretches. (If you were to, say, send me a bottle of wine every time I had to write about this, carry on!)

Reader, it brings me no joy to report that the government spending package — so painstakingly negotiated, renegotiated and involving several stopgaps and six months’ worth of squabbles — expires at the end of September.

A new fiscal year is upon us, and I, with a lot less patience and probably a few more gray hairs, am here to again explain it to you. I’m going to go out on a limb and say it — I don’t think it will take six months to resolve this current funding crisis. And maybe I’m too optimistic about this Congress and too intent on filling my newsletter with less repetitive topics, but I don’t even think we’ll have a shutdown. (And despite all of the dispatches, we actually never had one during the last year.)

Let’s get into it!

The News of the Week: Government spending

Typically in election years, lawmakers will pass a three-month stopgap at the start of the fiscal year in October to hold spending levels pat while they wait for the electoral dust to settle. Such thinking makes sense — in a few short months, each party will better know the terrain they’ll be operating in and can propose spending levels commensurate with the knowledge of who will control each chamber — and the White House — come January. 

In 2022, for example, senators from both parties negotiated with House Democrats during the lame duck session to pass a yearlong spending bill right before Christmas — when the desire to leave Washington was highest and chamber control was about to change.

Senate appropriators in both parties want to continue that tradition, favoring a stopgap through the end of the year. Such an arrangement (as opposed to a six-month stopgap) keeps the new Congress — and new president — from dealing with a spending crisis two months into their term. And the bill, typically the last thing to move in any given Congress, often gets stuffed with senators’ priorities.

But some House Republicans prefer a six-month stopgap, believing they can get a more favorable (read: lean) budget deal by waiting until March, in the hopes that they will have trifecta control of the White House and both chambers of Congress. Many have long grumbled that the holiday omnibuses are bloated products of the Senate, where the House is forced to take up the upper chamber’s product or risk shutting down the government and leaving members irate and stranded in D.C. during the holidays.

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) proposed a six-month stopgap with attached legislation requiring proof of citizenship when registering to vote — a nonstarter with Democrats, who point out that noncitizen voting is already illegal and incredibly rare. 

However — and this has been a theme all Congress — House Republicans can only afford to lose four votes on any given bill given their slim majority. And with scores of Republicans coming out against Johnson’s plan (several are opposed to pretty much any spending deal conceptually, have derailed his spending plans all year) he was forced to pull it from floor consideration Wednesday. 

Now, House Republicans are going back to the drawing board to figure out how to get the most conservative possible product to the Senate, in an effort to get leverage on the Democratic-controlled body, despite their most conservative House members often voting against spending deals on principle. That exact scenario has led to Johnson needing Democratic votes for must-pass spending deals — meaning nothing has moved with Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ (D-NY) approval.

Congress has a little more than two weeks to figure it out; government funding expires Oct. 1.

The Nevada Angle

A quick refresher on what happens if the government shuts down:

• Active-duty servicemembers at Nevada’s military installations, including three bases, will be expected to work without pay. 
• Nevada’s federal airport workforce at Harry Reid International Airport, among other airports, must also work without pay. 
• Great Basin National Park would close, most Bureau of Land Management staff would be furloughed and services at Nevada’s numerous federally managed conservation and recreation areas would shut down.
• Regional veterans affairs offices would shut their doors, including small-business and career counseling services.

The Impact

One of the reasons I’m convinced we won’t have a shutdown is because we’re less than two months from the election and swing-district Republicans desperately want to avoid one. Politico reported that Rep. Nick LaLota (R-NY), who represents a swingy district in eastern Long Island, predicted on a conference-wide call that the GOP would lose 10 seats in the House if Republicans force a shutdown.

All of the spending impasses in the 118th Congress have followed the same script: Republican Speaker sets opening demand that’s dead on arrival among the Democratic-controlled Senate anyway; House Democrats balk; enough House Republicans decide to vote against their own party’s proposal that the House has no choice but to pass a Democratic-approved product, often with more Democrats than Republicans supporting.

The remake is almost never as good as the original (the original, in this case, led to the drama-filled motion to vacate Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), and this will be no different. 

The real spending battle, as usual in election years, will likely occur in the lame duck session post-November. 

Around the Capitol

💸Ways (and Means) to Go — Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV) got his white whale — getting back onto the Ways & Means Committee. Horsford was on the influential tax writing panel last Congress when Democrats had the majority, but got booted when Republicans took it over — and wanted back on badly. With multiple vacancies, Horsford has now secured his spot.

He’ll serve on the Health and Social Security subcommittees, and said he’ll prioritize expanding the child tax credit and ending the subminimum wage and taxes on tips, among other ideas.

🔥Rosen to Biden: Be ready — In a letter to the Biden administration, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) called on federal agencies to be ready to assist with the Davis Fire as it continues to burn in Northern Nevada. The Federal Emergency Management Administration has approved a firefighting grant for the state.

🔋Lithium limits — Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV) introduced legislation to strengthen regulations around transporting lithium ion batteries in response to a July crash on Interstate 15 between Barstow and Las Vegas. In that incident, an overturned semitruck carrying lithium batteries caught fire, shutting down a portion of the interstate for two days and causing massive traffic delays.

The bill would make the rules around ground transportation of lithium ion batteries more similar to what exists for air travel, including a lowered maximum state of charge.

What I’m Reading

Roll Call: Senate’s most vulnerable list still dominated by Democrats

As if Pennsylvania doesn’t get enough coverage — Roll Call now ranks Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) as more endangered than Rosen.

The Nevada Independent: Poll: Nevadans support efforts to address Social Security shortfall

Should Congress touch the third rail?

The Hill: Congressional Black Caucus releases corporate accountability report on DEI

Four years after companies across the nation made diversity pledges, Horsford is checking in.

Notable and Quotable

“It’s election season. Let’s say nice things afterwards.”

— Sen. Ted Budd (R-NC), in an interview with me on what it’s like to work with Rosen on the tourism subcommittee

Vote of the Week

H. R. 9456 — On Passage: Protecting American Agriculture from Foreign Adversaries Act

Moderate Rep. Dan Newhouse’s (R-WA) bill to increase oversight of agricultural transactions that involve foreign nationals from China, Russia, North Korea and Iran peeled off 55 Democrats — including two of the Nevadans. 

AMODEI: Yes

HORSFORD: Yes

LEE: Yes

TITUS: No