Whoa Canada. Slowdown in north of the border visitation to Las Vegas worries analysts
We won’t know for a few weeks if declines in gaming revenue and tourism numbers during February are just a blip on the radar or the beginning of a trend, but we’ll be following the story through April and beyond.
Canadian Gaming Association CEO Paul Burns, who helped establish the organization in 2005, isn’t prone to brash comments. In an interview with The Nevada Independent last month, he warned that the reaction by Canadian citizens to the festering trade war with the U.S. would get worse before it gets better.
That warning came to pass last week after the release of passenger totals by the main airlines that service Harry Reid International Airport with direct routes between the largest Canadian cities and Las Vegas. They saw some of the largest declines of any air carrier, international or domestic, when compared with February 2024.
How much worse can it get?
Burns warned that a reluctance to visit the U.S. may keep Canadians from attending the Global Gaming Expo (G2E), the industry’s largest trade show, which is scheduled for Oct. 6-9 in Las Vegas at The Venetian Expo.
He said Canadians are often the largest foreign delegation at G2E.
“Lottery agencies in Canada are the customers, so they do come [to G2E], and there is a strong contingent,” Burns said. “We do a reception every year with between 400 and 500 people so it’s a very popular show with Canadians.”
G2E is seven months away, but the American Gaming Association, the Washington, D.C.-based trade organization that produces the event, is hopeful that relations between the U.S. and Canada will improve by then.
“G2E’s legacy as a global convening is more important than ever right now,” said AGA Senior Vice President Joe Maloney. “We are committed to maintaining our decades-long partnership and dialogue with Canadian gaming stakeholders and other gaming leaders throughout the world.”
The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) does not break out the number of international visitors monthly. However, the agency, in response to an emailed question about Canadian visitation, cited Global City Travel. According to the figure, Canada is the top international market for Las Vegas, with 1.4 million visitors in 2023, followed by Mexico.
The LVCVA did not provide any additional comment.
Maloney said the AGA is monitoring “developments with all our global partners throughout the gaming industry, particularly as it relates to international inbound visitation to key U.S. gaming destinations such as Las Vegas.”
However, it became clear last week that Canadians are avoiding Las Vegas. The number of international passengers traveling to Las Vegas fell 3 percent in February, according to the Clark County Department of Aviation’s monthly passenger report.
Air Canada saw a 5 percent drop to 51,600 passengers. WestJet, Reid’s busiest Canadian air carrier, experienced a 17 percent decline to 55,500 passengers. Flair, a low-cost carrier out of Edmonton, had the largest decrease with 11,700 passengers, down 55 percent.
A spokesperson for WestJet told Casino.org the airline has not eliminated routes to Las Vegas. However, according to PaxNews, Air Canada reduced capacity on March flights to Las Vegas, as well as Florida and Arizona, citing the ongoing tariff dispute with the U.S.
Reid Airport reported a 7.5 percent drop in overall passenger volume for February to just over 4 million travelers — the largest single-month decrease since the pandemic.
As the pandemic subsided four years ago, Las Vegas tourism officials and Reid Airport leaders offered solutions and other suggestions to the federal government for easing travel restrictions to the U.S. to boost the market.
It took another year for Las Vegas to see its first transcontinental flight — more than 20 months later.
Reid Airport saw more than 3.8 million international travelers in 2019. In 2024, the airport hit 3.7 million international passengers, an increase of 13.6 percent from 2023. Through February, international passenger volume was up almost 8 percent.
However, dark clouds have appeared.
Travel Weekly reported last week that advanced bookings between Canada and the U.S. have fallen by more than 70 percent for the summer flying season. An analyst for aviation data company OAG wrote that “future flight bookings between Canada and the U.S. have collapsed and the declines reach into September.”
The initial warning sign on how the simmering trade war between the U.S. and Canada affects Nevada’s gaming and tourism industry came in early March when the provincial government of Alberta banned the purchase of gaming equipment from companies in the Silver State.
Burns said other Canadian provinces took a stance similar to Alberta about halting purchases of U.S.-made slot machines, video lottery terminals and other equipment.
Without the Super Bowl, Vegas gaming and visitation figures fall in February
The absence of the Super Bowl — which took place at Allegiant Stadium last year — along with February’s shorter length, were the reasons cited for a double-digit downturn in Las Vegas’ gaming revenue and tourism figures.
Despite optimistic commentary from Strip resort operators during their most recent quarterly earnings conference calls, much has changed in the U.S. economy concerning travel, and Citizens Bank gaming analyst Jordan Bender wrote in a research note Monday that February’s downtown may have carried over into March.
“We are seeing data points highlighting some softening across certain areas of inbound visitation,” Bender wrote. “Airlines have noted [that] government travel is weak as a result of workforce cuts,” which he said could hurt Las Vegas’ convention business.
Gaming revenue at Las Vegas Boulevard casinos fell almost 14 percent to $690.3 million in the month, compared to February 2024’s $800.6 million. Still, when combined with January’s 22 percent increase, Strip resorts are up 3 percent over two months compared to 2024.
Las Vegas visitation fell 12 percent to just under 3 million in the month, according to the LVCVA. Within that total, convention attendance was off 19.5 percent to 615,000 as several trade shows rotated out to other markets.
Without the Super Bowl, hotel room occupancy was down almost 11 percent, average daily room rates fell 26.2 percent to $198.69 and revenue per available room, the metric that gauges profitability, was down 29 percent.
Bender wrote that he expects pricing points will be lowered and cost-cutting measures will be implemented to increase revenue and earnings in the upcoming quarters.
Statewide, Nevada gaming revenue fell more than 9 percent to $1.2 billion during February. However, given January 2025 was the second-highest monthly gaming revenue total ever recorded in the state — almost $1.44 billion — Nevada’s casino industry is still up 1.3 percent for the year’s first two months.
Declines took place throughout the state in February. Casino revenue in Las Vegas locals markets fell a combined 1.1 percent, downtown was off almost 5 percent and Reno fell 6.4 percent. South Lake Tahoe casinos had the largest decline in the state: 17.4 percent.
On the Strip, baccarat wagering in February, which is heavily influenced by high-end visitation, was down 31 percent. Revenue from the game fell 51.5 percent to $87.5 million.
Meanwhile, Strip resorts saw a less than 1 percent increase in slot machine revenue. Sports betting revenue was down 2.3 percent, despite sportsbooks collecting a record $22.1 million on Super Bowl wagers. Betting on the Super Bowl in Nevada fell 20 percent from the previous year.
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